Thursday, October 9, 2008

Dow Jones

Wow, Isn't this interesting. We are watching this and most people do not understand what is going on. What we are being told is that the housing crisis has caused this and that it was the law Clinton passed in Dec. 1999 is what made is happen.
So let me get this straight, a law passed in Dec. 1999 by a Democratic President, that passed through a Republican House, and Senate was the cause. So if it was the catalyst, why did the Republicans allow it to remain in force? Didn't they control the House, Senate, and Presidency for 6 of the past 8 years? Maybe because they and all of their friends were reaping the benefits.
We don't want to sit and listen to blaming because there is enough fault to go around for everyone.
As far as I was concerned this market has been doomed for years. My son Richard said in his blog, math doesn't lie, over and over again. Well I felt the same thing. I sat down 3 years ago and started looking at the PE's (profits to earnings ratio) and saw that the math wasn't adding up. I argued that the market belonged between 7500 and 7800. There is no justifiable reason for a company to have a PE over 14. We were seeing between 40:1 to 150:1 PE's. What this meant was that companies were making $150 on $1 investments. Worse yet they were selling no products. So why were they doing so well. SPECULATION. there was no reason for it people just got greedy and thought that this company was valuable and kept buying it and drove the prices up and up. It's kind of like a pyramid scheme, every one give a dollar and they tell friends to do so and so on. Now we all know only the ones at the top of the pyramid make money but that didn't stop these people from investing because they all got greedy.
This market will settle in at $7500-7800 and I believe that enough people have been stung to allow for normal growth from now on. The market will get better, and not due to any political candidate, but due to the fact that people are now understanding that playing the market is gambling. You can play the $5 slots and hope for a big win or you can go the the Blackjack table and have a %50 chance of winning. If people invest in companies with between 7 and 10 to 1 PE companies, they will receive steady growth and get their accounts back on track. Do not listen to the pundants who talk about this being a good time to get great deals on breakout companies, stay with many small companies that have lower PE's and be comfortable in the knowledge that I am just a guy that kind of gets it. Those pundants, they are called BROKERS and what is the root word of Broker...BROKE.

Saturday, October 4, 2008

Debating Politics

I am a very active debater. I love to talk politics. It is so much fun to me and I learn so much. I love hearing opposing views and doing the best I can to refute them. In argumentative situations there are do's and don'ts.
Do allow the other person to make their point.
Don't interrupt.
Do offer valid points and counterpoints.
Don't use slippery slope or straw man arguments.
Do know what you are talking about.
Don't speak if you know not the subject.
Do use facts.
Don't use talking points.

When ever you get into a debate about politics, speak of your opinions, never use the words you hear on TV or in the news or on political campaigns. If a person asks you a question about your party or candidate, answer it. Stop using the "oh Yeah. well what about their party or candidate. Answer the f' ing question asked. There is nothing so ignorant to me as when I ask and their come back is a talking point or an attack on my belief. There is no way you can enlighten a person as to what it is you believe in if you never tell them what it is or why you believe in it.
I am irritated when watching the 2 parties debate on TV after a big event. It is just ridiculous. It's like watching 4th graders in the school yard. Na na na na boo boo. After watching the VP debate, I was astounded that everyone was going so ga ga over the fact that Sarah Palin didn't fall on her face. Well, I for one, feel like she did. I saw an antagonistic, undereducated, semi-illiterate, unjustifiable excuse for a candidate. She has no grasp of the English language, and doesn't understand the difference between NUCLEAR and NUCULAR. I have cringed for 8 years as our current President has butchered the English language and cannot believe that they want me to go through this again.
Her demeanor, her winks, her talkin' strait to the people of Amairaker bullshit was offensive to me. If there is a "g" on the end of a word...use it. For sure, golly gee, gosh darn it.
IF I WANTED THE GROCERY STORE CHECK OUT GIRL TO RUN THE COUNTRY I ASK HER TO RUN MYSELF. I want an educated person that has a grasp of the English language, who doesn't try to play cutesy when they don't have a good answer for me, and does not speak of the American Public as Joe Six Pack and Hockey Moms.
I wrote this before the SNL skit...Man they nailed it!

The Surge Is Working

That is one of the most ludicrous talking points out there. What are they gauging this by? The fact that there is less violence now does not mean it is working. The 911 attack on America was done to destroy the American Economy. Every one thought it was over when the stock market crashed on Feb 16th 2002. What they didn't know is that the terrorist knew the Arrogant Americans will buy anything from their government if they call it "The War On". Think about it, The War On Drugs...The War on Terror, The War on Poverty, and The War on Crime. All those three words preceding anything the government wants to go after mean, is that they will get an open checkbook from the people of America. After all if you care about your country, you want to win all of these battles.
So Bin Laden attacks us, our supposed conservative Republican Party comes to power, and proceeds to spend 10 billion dollars a month on a war against "TERROR". There is no uniformed enemy, no face, no locale, just a word...Terror. Now the open checkbook that can be spent on anything! The terrorists knew that if they did this they could watch our country destroy its own economy by chasing their own tail and spending every penny they had to prove that we are "Right". They are laughing at our stupidity, 10 billion a month! Isn't that amazing, Since the September 11, 2001, attacks on the United States, Congress has approved $691 billion to pay for the War on Terror in Iraq and Afghanistan. So was it really the fault of the lenders, the buyers who couldn't afford to buy homes, the big CEO's salaries, Clinton for changing the lending rules so that there were different rules for investment banks and savings banks? I contend no! If there wasn't this war, there wouldn't be these problems.
Even I understand the basics of economics. If you set your budget up based upon what you can afford, and an unexpected expense comes up, you must choose which expense is more important and sacrifice one. Instead our government decided that "the fundamentals of the economy were sound" so they could just keep writing bad checks to both causes. These blind mice lead all of the United States into a giant mouse trap and we all followed like lemmings jumping off of the cliff in unison.
I am not saying which the most important cause was, I am just saying that during the entire Bush Administration, interest rates stayed as low as they have ever been in history, and the War has continued without regard for how much it will cost. We are being told we cannot stop until we achieve victory. Well, ask yourself what is going to be the gauge of victory. I believe that victory has already been accomplished, by the terrorist. They have destroyed our economy which was their goal. Now if you listen to what our government is saying, they believe they can still achieve a victory in the physical battles. So we are bigger and stronger than you...WOW. Kind of sounds like the schoolyard bully to me. He comes from a broken home, has no money, no education, and has a very false high opinion of himself, but if you want to fight, he can beat you up.
It is the constant barrage of "Patriotism, Country First, Flag waving" politics that have duped Americans into believing that we are right and the rest of the world is wrong giving us a very false high opinion of ourselves, that have broken our homes, broken our banks, and lead us to become a nation that other countries look at and shake their heads wondering what the hell are they thinking. But don't worry folks...we can just beat them up!