Thursday, October 9, 2008

Dow Jones

Wow, Isn't this interesting. We are watching this and most people do not understand what is going on. What we are being told is that the housing crisis has caused this and that it was the law Clinton passed in Dec. 1999 is what made is happen.
So let me get this straight, a law passed in Dec. 1999 by a Democratic President, that passed through a Republican House, and Senate was the cause. So if it was the catalyst, why did the Republicans allow it to remain in force? Didn't they control the House, Senate, and Presidency for 6 of the past 8 years? Maybe because they and all of their friends were reaping the benefits.
We don't want to sit and listen to blaming because there is enough fault to go around for everyone.
As far as I was concerned this market has been doomed for years. My son Richard said in his blog, math doesn't lie, over and over again. Well I felt the same thing. I sat down 3 years ago and started looking at the PE's (profits to earnings ratio) and saw that the math wasn't adding up. I argued that the market belonged between 7500 and 7800. There is no justifiable reason for a company to have a PE over 14. We were seeing between 40:1 to 150:1 PE's. What this meant was that companies were making $150 on $1 investments. Worse yet they were selling no products. So why were they doing so well. SPECULATION. there was no reason for it people just got greedy and thought that this company was valuable and kept buying it and drove the prices up and up. It's kind of like a pyramid scheme, every one give a dollar and they tell friends to do so and so on. Now we all know only the ones at the top of the pyramid make money but that didn't stop these people from investing because they all got greedy.
This market will settle in at $7500-7800 and I believe that enough people have been stung to allow for normal growth from now on. The market will get better, and not due to any political candidate, but due to the fact that people are now understanding that playing the market is gambling. You can play the $5 slots and hope for a big win or you can go the the Blackjack table and have a %50 chance of winning. If people invest in companies with between 7 and 10 to 1 PE companies, they will receive steady growth and get their accounts back on track. Do not listen to the pundants who talk about this being a good time to get great deals on breakout companies, stay with many small companies that have lower PE's and be comfortable in the knowledge that I am just a guy that kind of gets it. Those pundants, they are called BROKERS and what is the root word of Broker...BROKE.

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